Sunday, July 29, 2007

A Trip Down Statistical Lane - By Stat Nerd

1) I like Mike Fontenot as much as the next guy, but he won't keep this up. And here is your statistical evidence. Fontenot has a batting average of balls-in-play (BABiP) of .374 (which is absolutely ridiculous). The league average is around .260-.275, so expect some serious regression in the second half, as a lot of his balls will cease finding holes. Thats what she said.

2) Want to know who is actually leading the league in BABiP? That'd be none other than Derrek Lee, who is at .405. Expect some regression there too (as much as I hate to say it, Stat Nerd has always been a DLee fan...who's been underrated for so many years before he finally got to play in a hitters park)

3) Who's been the best pitcher in the NL this year? Chris Young...and it isn't even close. Not even remotely close. But what I found surprising is that Ted Lilly has been the Cubs best pitcher. And dammit I wish I could go back and find that old goals email where I definitely predicted that in the winter (right after they signed him). Who did the Yankees get for trading Lilly back in the day? Jeff Weaver?? Ouch.

4) Anyone looking for an NL MVP prediction? How about Florida's Hanley Ramirez? I've felt all year that this guy is not only better than Jose Reyes (who gets more pub), but he's probably the best shortstop in the game. He's currently top 5 in the league in runs created per game, while playing a premium defensive position (and playing it quite well, I might add).

1 comment:

J.ust O.ver B.roke said...

Except no one who is voting is going to look at runs created per game and no one is going to give the MVP to a member of the no-name Marlins. Shame that Chase Utley broke his hand, because for my money, he's got a higher OPS than Ramirez, 30 more RBI, 8 more extra base hits, and a better OBP and slugging percentage. His team is a contender and he's a gold glove candidate while only hitting 6 points below Ramirez, whom no one would know if he didn't lead the league in batting average.

Considering Utley's hurt, his teammate is a good bet to end up with the award for the second year in a row. Despite a lighter average, Howard is a top ten guy in a number of offensive categories and media-loved. I'm not saying that you don't have a point, I'm just saying it's not gonna happen.